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豪中銀:政策金利を1%に据え置き-必要ならさらに金融緩和も

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  • エコノミスト34人中30人が金利据え置きを予想
  • ロウ総裁は必要であれば「さらなる金融政策の緩和を行う」と表明

オーストラリア準備銀行(中央銀行)は3日、政策金利であるオフィシャル・キャッシュレートの誘導目標を過去最低の1%に据え置くことを決定した。ブルームバーグが調査したエコノミスト34人中30人が金利据え置きを予想していた。

  シドニーの不動産価格が既に新たな力強さを示す中、これまでの利下げと減税の組み合わせが景気に及ぼす効果を見極める。豪中銀のロウ総裁は、景気が先月予想していた「なだらかな転換」に入っているかどうか判断する方針だ。それでも市場とエコノミストは同総裁が年内に再び金融政策を緩和する必要があると予想している。

  ロウ総裁は声明で、特にシドニーとメルボルンなどの住宅市場で「さらなる回復の兆しが見られる」と指摘。「国内最大の不確実性は引き続き消費の見通しだが、家計所得の伸び回復と住宅市場の落ち着きが消費を支えると見込まれている」との見解を示した。

  豪中銀は最近の家計向け減税で消費が回復し、通貨安が輸出業者の追い風となることで、国内経済を世界的な混乱から守ることに寄与すると期待している。ただ、同国最大の輸出品である鉄鉱石と石炭の輸出が落ち込み、国民が記録的な債務と賃金の伸び悩みに直面する中で、追加利下げを回避するのは困難となる公算が大きい。

  ロウ総裁は声明で、「失業率低下が進展し、インフレ目標に向けより確実な進ちょくを達成するには、豪州で長期にわたる低金利が必要になると予想することは合理的だ。政策委員会は雇用市場を含む動きを引き続き注視し、持続可能な成長の下支えと今後のインフレ目標達成に必要であれば、さらなる金融政策の緩和を行う」と表明した。

  豪ドルはシドニー時間午後2時57分(日本時間同1時57分)現在、1豪ドル=0.6711米ドル。発表前は0.6694米ドルだった。

Australia's housing rebound gathered pace in August
RateRateSurveySurvey vsPolicy
DateChangeTargetMedianActual*Direction
09/03/20190.001.001.00ExpectedMaintain
08/06/20190.001.001.00ExpectedMaintain
07/02/2019-0.251.001.00ExpectedEasing
06/04/2019-0.251.251.25ExpectedEasing
05/07/20190.001.501.25UnexpectedMaintain
04/02/20190.001.501.50ExpectedMaintain
03/05/20190.001.501.50ExpectedMaintain
02/05/20190.001.501.50ExpectedMaintain
12/04/20180.001.501.50ExpectedMaintain
11/06/20180.001.501.50ExpectedMaintain
10/02/20180.001.501.50ExpectedMaintain
09/04/20180.001.501.50ExpectedMaintain
08/07/20180.001.501.50ExpectedMaintain
07/03/20180.001.501.50ExpectedMaintain
06/05/20180.001.501.50ExpectedMaintain
05/01/20180.001.501.50ExpectedMaintain
04/03/20180.001.501.50ExpectedMaintain
03/06/20180.001.501.50ExpectedMaintain
02/06/20180.001.501.50ExpectedMaintain
12/05/20170.001.501.50ExpectedMaintain
11/07/20170.001.501.50ExpectedMaintain
10/03/20170.001.501.50ExpectedMaintain
09/05/20170.001.501.50ExpectedMaintain
08/01/20170.001.501.50ExpectedMaintain
07/04/20170.001.501.50ExpectedMaintain
06/06/20170.001.501.50ExpectedMaintain
05/02/20170.001.501.50ExpectedMaintain
04/04/20170.001.501.50ExpectedMaintain
03/07/20170.001.501.50ExpectedMaintain
02/07/20170.001.501.50ExpectedMaintain
12/06/20160.001.501.50ExpectedMaintain
11/01/20160.001.501.50ExpectedMaintain
10/04/20160.001.501.50ExpectedMaintain
09/06/20160.001.501.50ExpectedMaintain
08/02/2016-0.251.501.50ExpectedEasing
07/05/20160.001.751.75ExpectedMaintain
06/07/20160.001.751.75ExpectedMaintain
05/03/2016-0.251.752.00UnexpectedEasing
04/05/20160.002.002.00ExpectedMaintain
03/01/20160.002.002.00ExpectedMaintain
02/02/20160.002.002.00ExpectedMaintain
12/01/20150.002.002.00ExpectedMaintain
11/03/20150.002.002.00ExpectedMaintain
10/06/20150.002.002.00ExpectedMaintain
09/01/20150.002.002.00ExpectedMaintain
08/04/20150.002.002.00ExpectedMaintain
07/07/20150.002.002.00ExpectedMaintain
06/02/20150.002.002.00ExpectedMaintain
05/05/2015-0.252.002.00ExpectedEasing
04/07/20150.002.252.25ExpectedMaintain
03/03/20150.002.252.00UnexpectedMaintain
02/03/2015-0.252.252.50UnexpectedEasing
12/02/20140.002.502.50ExpectedMaintain
11/04/20140.002.502.50ExpectedMaintain
10/07/20140.002.502.50ExpectedMaintain
09/02/20140.002.502.50ExpectedMaintain
08/05/20140.002.502.50ExpectedMaintain
07/01/20140.002.502.50ExpectedMaintain
06/03/20140.002.502.50ExpectedMaintain
05/06/20140.002.502.50ExpectedMaintain
04/01/20140.002.502.50ExpectedMaintain
03/04/20140.002.502.50ExpectedMaintain
02/04/20140.002.502.50ExpectedMaintain
12/03/20130.002.502.50ExpectedMaintain
11/05/20130.002.502.50ExpectedMaintain
10/01/20130.002.502.50ExpectedMaintain
09/03/20130.002.502.50ExpectedMaintain
08/06/2013-0.252.502.50ExpectedEasing
07/02/20130.002.752.75ExpectedMaintain
06/04/20130.002.752.75ExpectedMaintain
05/07/2013-0.252.753.00UnexpectedEasing
04/02/20130.003.003.00ExpectedMaintain
03/05/20130.003.003.00ExpectedMaintain
02/05/20130.003.003.00ExpectedMaintain
12/04/2012-0.253.003.00ExpectedEasing
11/06/20120.003.253.00UnexpectedMaintain
10/02/2012-0.253.253.50UnexpectedEasing
09/04/20120.003.503.50ExpectedMaintain
08/07/20120.003.503.50ExpectedMaintain
07/03/20120.003.503.50ExpectedMaintain
06/05/2012-0.253.503.50ExpectedEasing
05/01/2012-0.503.754.00UnexpectedEasing
04/03/20120.004.254.25ExpectedMaintain
03/06/20120.004.254.25ExpectedMaintain
02/07/20120.004.254.00UnexpectedMaintain
12/06/2011-0.254.254.25ExpectedEasing
11/01/2011-0.254.504.50ExpectedEasing
10/04/20110.004.754.75ExpectedMaintain
09/06/20110.004.754.75ExpectedMaintain
08/02/20110.004.754.75ExpectedMaintain
07/05/20110.004.754.75ExpectedMaintain
06/07/20110.004.754.75ExpectedMaintain
05/03/20110.004.754.75ExpectedMaintain
04/05/20110.004.754.75ExpectedMaintain
03/01/20110.004.754.75ExpectedMaintain
02/01/20110.004.754.75ExpectedMaintain
12/07/20100.004.754.75ExpectedMaintain
11/02/20100.254.754.50UnexpectedTightening
10/05/20100.004.504.75UnexpectedMaintain
09/07/20100.004.504.50ExpectedMaintain
08/03/20100.004.504.75ExpectedMaintain
07/06/20100.004.504.50ExpectedMaintain
06/01/20100.004.504.50ExpectedMaintain
05/04/20100.254.504.50ExpectedTightening
04/06/20100.254.254.25ExpectedTightening
03/02/20100.254.004.00ExpectedTightening
02/02/20100.003.754.00UnexpectedMaintain
12/01/20090.253.753.75ExpectedTightening
11/03/20090.253.503.50ExpectedTightening
10/06/20090.253.253.00UnexpectedTightening
09/01/20090.003.003.00ExpectedMaintain
08/04/20090.003.003.00ExpectedMaintain
07/07/20090.003.003.00ExpectedMaintain
06/02/20090.003.003.00ExpectedMaintain
05/05/20090.003.003.00ExpectedMaintain
04/07/2009-0.253.003.25UnexpectedEasing
03/03/20090.003.253.00UnexpectedMaintain
02/03/2009-1.003.253.25ExpectedEasing
12/02/2008-1.004.254.50UnexpectedEasing
11/04/2008-0.755.255.50UnexpectedEasing
10/07/2008-1.006.006.50UnexpectedEasing
09/02/2008-0.257.007.00ExpectedEasing
08/05/20080.007.257.25ExpectedMaintain
07/01/20080.007.257.25ExpectedMaintain
06/03/20080.007.257.25ExpectedMaintain
05/06/20080.007.257.25ExpectedMaintain
04/01/20080.007.257.25ExpectedMaintain
03/04/20080.257.257.25ExpectedTightening
02/05/20080.257.007.00ExpectedTightening
12/05/20070.006.756.75ExpectedMaintain
11/07/20070.256.756.75ExpectedTightening
10/03/20070.006.506.50ExpectedMaintain
09/05/20070.006.506.50ExpectedMaintain
08/08/20070.256.506.50ExpectedTightening
07/04/20070.006.256.25ExpectedMaintain
06/06/20070.006.256.25ExpectedMaintain
05/02/20070.006.256.25ExpectedMaintain
04/04/20070.006.256.25ExpectedMaintain
03/07/20070.006.256.25ExpectedMaintain
02/07/20070.006.256.25ExpectedMaintain
12/06/20060.006.256.25ExpectedMaintain
11/08/20060.256.256.25ExpectedTightening
10/04/20060.006.006.00ExpectedMaintain
09/06/20060.006.006.00ExpectedMaintain
08/02/20060.256.006.00ExpectedTightening
07/05/20060.005.755.75ExpectedMaintain
06/07/20060.005.755.75ExpectedMaintain
05/03/20060.255.755.50UnexpectedTightening
04/05/20060.005.505.50ExpectedMaintain
03/08/20060.005.505.50ExpectedMaintain
02/08/20060.005.505.50ExpectedMaintain
12/07/20050.005.505.50ExpectedMaintain
11/02/20050.005.505.50ExpectedMaintain
10/05/20050.005.505.50ExpectedMaintain
09/07/20050.005.505.50ExpectedMaintain
08/03/20050.005.505.50ExpectedMaintain
07/06/20050.005.505.50ExpectedMaintain
06/08/20050.005.505.50ExpectedMaintain
05/04/20050.005.505.50ExpectedMaintain
04/06/20050.005.505.75UnexpectedMaintain
03/02/20050.255.505.50ExpectedTightening
02/02/20050.005.255.25ExpectedMaintain
12/08/20040.005.255.25ExpectedMaintain
11/03/20040.005.255.25ExpectedMaintain
10/06/20040.005.255.25ExpectedMaintain
09/08/20040.005.255.25ExpectedMaintain
08/04/20040.005.255.25ExpectedMaintain
07/07/20040.005.255.25ExpectedMaintain
06/02/20040.005.255.25ExpectedMaintain
05/05/20040.005.255.25ExpectedMaintain
04/07/20040.005.255.25ExpectedMaintain
03/03/20040.005.255.25ExpectedMaintain
02/04/20040.005.255.25ExpectedMaintain
12/03/20030.255.255.25ExpectedTightening
11/05/20030.255.004.75UnexpectedTightening
10/08/20030.004.754.75ExpectedMaintain
09/03/20030.004.754.75ExpectedMaintain
08/06/20030.004.754.75ExpectedMaintain
07/02/20030.004.754.50UnexpectedMaintain
06/04/20030.004.754.75ExpectedMaintain
05/07/20030.004.754.75ExpectedMaintain
04/02/20030.004.754.75ExpectedMaintain
03/05/20030.004.754.75ExpectedMaintain
02/05/20030.004.754.75ExpectedMaintain
12/04/20020.004.754.75ExpectedMaintain
11/06/20020.004.754.75ExpectedMaintain
10/02/20020.004.754.75ExpectedMaintain
09/04/20020.004.754.75ExpectedMaintain
08/07/20020.004.754.75ExpectedMaintain
07/03/20020.004.754.75ExpectedMaintain
06/05/20020.254.754.75ExpectedTightening
05/08/20020.254.504.50ExpectedTightening
04/03/20020.004.254.25ExpectedMaintain
03/06/20020.004.254.25ExpectedMaintain
02/05/20020.004.254.25ExpectedMaintain
12/05/2001-0.254.254.25ExpectedEasing
10/03/2001-0.254.504.50ExpectedEasing
09/05/2001-0.254.75n/an/aEasing
04/04/2001-0.505.00n/an/aEasing
03/07/2001-0.255.50n/an/aEasing
02/07/2001-0.505.75n/an/aEasing
08/02/20000.256.25n/an/aTightening
05/03/20000.256.00n/an/aTightening
04/05/20000.255.75n/an/aTightening
02/02/20000.505.50n/an/aTightening
11/03/19990.255.00n/an/aTightening
12/02/1998-0.254.75n/an/aEasing
07/30/1997-0.505.00n/an/aEasing
05/23/1997-0.505.50n/an/aEasing
12/11/1996-0.506.00n/an/aEasing
11/06/1996-0.506.50n/an/aEasing
07/31/1996-0.507.00n/an/aEasing
12/14/19941.007.50n/an/aTightening
10/24/19941.006.50n/an/aTightening
08/17/19940.755.50n/an/aTightening
07/30/1993-0.504.75n/an/aEasing
03/23/1993-0.505.25n/an/aEasing
07/08/1992-0.755.75n/an/aEasing
05/06/1992-1.006.50n/an/aEasing
01/08/1992-1.007.50n/an/aEasing
11/06/1991-1.008.50n/an/aEasing
09/03/1991-1.009.50n/an/aEasing
05/16/1991-1.0010.50n/an/aEasing
04/04/1991-0.5011.50n/an/aEasing
12/18/1990-1.0012.00n/an/aEasing
10/15/1990-1.0013.00n/an/aEasing
08/02/1990-1.0014.00n/an/aEasing
04/04/1990-1.00 to -1.5015.0-15.5n/an/aEasing
02/15/1990-0.5016.5-17.0n/an/aEasing
02/23/1990-.50 to -1.0017.0-17.5n/an/aEasing

Note: * Expected is when the Bloomberg survey median is equal to the announced rate and unexpected is when the announced rate is not equal to the Bloomberg survey median

原題:RBA Keeps Rate Unchanged at 1.00%; Decision History
RBA Leaves Key Rate at 1% as Seen by 30 of 34 Economists
Australia Holds Rate, Watches and Waits as Sydney Property Jumps
(抜粋)

(2段落目以降に声明の内容や為替相場などを追加して更新します.)
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