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アジア開銀:19年のアジア新興国成長率予想を5.7%に下方修正

  • 従来の見通しは5.8%-ADBが最新の「アジア経済見通し」発表
  • 中国の成長率予想は19年が6.3%、20年が6.1%

アジア開発銀行(ADB)は最新の「アジア経済見通し」で、2019年のアジア新興国・地域の成長率予想を5.7%とし、従来の5.8%から引き下げた。

  • 中国の成長率予想は19年が6.3%、20年が6.1%
    • インフレ率予想は19年が1.9%、20年が1.8%
  • インドは19年が7.2%成長、20年が7.3%成長
    • インフレ率は19年が4.3%、20年が4.6%
  • 韓国は19年が2.5%成長、20年が2.5%成長
    • インフレ率は19年が1.4%、20年が1.4%
Year202020192018202020192018
ForecastForecastActualForecastForecastActual
GDPInflation
 Developing Asia5.6%5.7%5.9%2.5%2.5%2.5%
 Central Asia4.2%4.2%4.4%7.2%7.8%7.9%
  Armenia4.5%4.3%5.2%3.2%3.5%2.5%
  Azerbaijan2.7%2.5%1.4%5.0%4.0%2.3%
  Georgia4.9%5.0%4.8%3.0%3.2%2.6%
  Kazakhstan3.3%3.5%4.1%5.5%6.0%6.0%
  Kyrgyz Republic4.4%4.0%3.5%3.5%3.0%1.5%
  Tajikistan6.5%7.0%7.3%7.0%7.5%5.4%
  Turkmenistan5.8%6.0%6.2%8.2%9.0%9.4%
  Uzbekistan5.5%5.2%5.1%14.0%16.0%17.9%
 East Asia5.5%5.7%6.0%1.8%1.8%2.0%
  Hong Kong2.5%2.5%3.0%2.3%2.3%2.4%
  Mongolia6.3%6.7%6.9%7.5%8.5%6.8%
  China6.1%6.3%6.6%1.8%1.9%2.1%
  South Korea2.5%2.5%2.7%1.4%1.4%1.5%
  Taiwan2.0%2.2%2.6%1.2%1.1%1.3%
 South Asia6.9%6.8%6.7%4.9%4.7%3.7%
  Afghanistan3.0%2.5%2.2%4.5%3.0%0.6%
  Bangladesh8.0%8.0%7.9%5.8%5.5%5.8%
  Bhutan6.0%5.7%5.5%4.0%3.8%3.6%
  India7.3%7.2%7.0%4.6%4.3%3.5%
  Maldives6.3%6.5%7.6%1.5%1.0%-0.1%
  Nepal6.3%6.2%6.3%5.1%4.4%4.2%
  Pakistan3.6%3.9%5.2%7.0%7.5%3.9%
  Sri Lanka3.8%3.6%3.2%4.0%3.5%2.1%
 Southeast Asia5.0%4.9%5.1%2.7%2.6%2.7%
  Brunei1.5%1.0%-1.0%0.2%0.2%0.1%
  Cambodia6.8%7.0%7.3%2.5%2.5%2.5%
  Indonesia5.3%5.2%5.2%3.3%3.2%3.2%
  Laos6.5%6.5%6.5%2.0%2.0%2.0%
  Malaysia4.7%4.5%4.7%2.7%2.0%1.0%
  Myanmar6.8%6.6%6.2%7.5%6.8%7.1%
  Philippines6.4%6.4%6.2%3.5%3.8%5.2%
  Singapore2.6%2.6%3.2%0.9%0.7%0.4%
  Thailand3.7%3.9%4.1%1.0%1.0%1.1%
  Vietnam6.7%6.8%7.1%3.8%3.5%3.5%
 The Pacific3.2%3.5%0.9%4.0%3.7%4.0%
  Cook Islands4.5%6.0%7.0%1.5%1.0%0.4%
  Federated States of Micronesia2.5%2.7%2.0%1.5%0.7%1.0%
  Fiji3.5%3.2%3.0%3.0%3.5%4.1%
  Kiribati2.3%2.3%2.3%2.2%2.3%2.1%
  Marshall Islands2.2%2.3%2.5%1.0%0.5%0.7%
  Nauru0.1%-1.0%-2.4%2.0%2.5%3.8%
  Palau3.0%3.0%0.5%1.5%0.5%1.1%
  Papua New Guinea3.1%3.7%0.2%4.7%4.2%4.5%
  Samoa3.0%2.0%0.9%1.5%2.0%3.7%
  Solomon Islands2.3%2.4%3.0%2.5%2.5%3.3%
  Timor-Leste5.4%4.8%-0.5%3.3%3.0%2.1%
  Tonga1.9%2.1%0.4%5.3%5.3%5.3%
  Tuvalu4.4%4.1%4.3%3.5%3.4%1.8%
  Vanuatu2.8%3.0%3.2%2.0%2.0%2.2%

Source: Asian Development Outlook 2019

原題:ADB Lowers Developing Asia 2019 GDP Forecast to 5.7%; 2020 5.6%(抜粋)

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