ADB:17年のアジア新興国GDPを5.9%増と予想-18年は5.8%増に

  • 17年の中国成長率見通しは6.7%増、韓国は2.8%増に上方修正
  • 「アジア新興国の成長見通しは上向きつつある」と澤田氏

アジア開発銀行(ADB)は26日、最新のアジア成長見通しを発表し、2017年のアジア新興国・地域の国内総生産(GDP)伸び率予想を前年比5.9%と、従来の5.7%から上方修正した。18年の予想も5.8%(従来5.7%)に引き上げた。

  17年のGDP見通しを国別で見ると中国が6.7%増(従来6.5%増)、韓国が2.8%増(同2.5%増)とそれぞれ上方修正された一方、インドは7%増(同7.4%増)に下方修正。インドネシアとタイはそれぞれ5.1%増、3.5%増に据え置かれた。フィリピンは6.5%増(同6.4%増)とされた。

  ADBのチーフエコノミスト、澤田康幸氏は「世界的な貿易の改善や中国の力強い勢いに支えられて、アジア新興国の成長見通しは上向きつつある」と指摘した。

2018201820172017
Annual GDP GrowthRevisedPreviousRevisedPrevious2016
Developing Asia5.8%5.7%5.9%5.7%5.8%
Central Asia3.9%3.5%3.3%3.1%2.2%
 Armenia3.0%2.5%3.8%2.2%0.2%
 Azerbaijan1.0%1.2%-1.3%-1.1%-3.8%
 Georgia4.5%4.5%4.2%3.8%2.7%
 Kazakhstan3.0%2.2%2.7%2.4%1.1%
 Kyrgyz Republic4.0%3.5%4.0%3.0%3.8%
 Tajikistan5.5%5.5%5.0%4.8%6.9%
 Turkmenistan6.5%7.0%6.5%6.5%6.2%
 Uzbekistan7.5%7.3%6.8%7.0%7.8%
East Asia5.8%5.6%6.0%5.8%6.0%
 China6.4%6.2%6.7%6.5%6.7%
 Hong Kong3.2%2.1%3.6%2.0%2.0%
 South Korea2.8%2.7%2.8%2.5%2.8%
 Mongolia3.0%2.0%4.0%2.5%1.0%
 Taipei,China2.2%2.2%2.0%1.8%1.5%
South Asia7.0%7.2%6.7%7.0%6.7%
 Afghanistan3.0%3.0%2.5%2.5%2.0%
 Bangladesh6.9%6.9%7.2%6.9%7.1%
 Bhutan8.0%9.9%6.9%8.2%6.4%
 India7.4%7.6%7.0%7.4%7.1%
 Maldives4.4%4.1%4.2%3.8%3.4%
 Nepal4.7%5.4%6.9%5.6%0.0%
 Pakistan5.5%5.5%5.3%5.2%4.5%
 Sri Lanka5.0%5.0%4.5%5.0%4.4%
Southeast Asia5.1%5.0%5.0%4.8%4.6%
 Brunei Darussalam1.0%2.5%0.0%1.0%-2.5%
 Cambodia7.1%7.1%7.1%7.1%7.0%
 Indonesia5.3%5.3%5.1%5.1%5.0%
 Lao People’s Dem. Rep.7.0%7.0%6.9%6.9%6.8%
 Malaysia5.4%4.6%5.4%4.4%4.2%
 Myanmar8.0%8.0%7.7%7.7%5.9%
 Philippines6.7%6.6%6.5%6.4%6.9%
 Singapore2.7%2.3%2.7%2.2%2.0%
 Thailand3.6%3.6%3.5%3.5%3.2%
 Vietnam6.5%6.7%6.3%6.5%6.2%
The Pacific3.2%3.3%2.9%2.9%2.4%
 Cook Islands5.0%5.0%5.0%5.0%8.8%
 Fiji3.9%4.0%3.6%3.5%0.4%
 Kiribati2.3%1.5%2.0%2.0%1.8%
 Marshall Islands2.5%2.5%4.0%4.0%1.9%
 Micronesia2.0%2.5%2.0%2.5%-0.1%
 Nauru-4.0%-4.5%4.0%4.3%10.4%
 Palau3.5%5.5%0.5%3.0%1.9%
 Papua New Guinea2.8%2.8%2.5%2.5%2.0%
 Samoa1.0%1.5%3.0%2.0%7.1%
 Solomon Islands3.0%2.8%3.0%3.0%3.2%
 Timor-Leste6.0%6.0%4.0%4.0%5.4%
 Tonga3.5%2.6%2.8%2.6%3.1%
 Tuvalu3.0%3.0%3.2%3.0%4.0%
 Vanuatu4.0%3.8%4.5%4.3%4.0%

Source: Asian Development Outlook 2017 Update

原題:ADB Raises Developing Asia 2017 GDP Forecast to 5.9%; 2018 5.8%(抜粋)

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