ブルームバーグ景気調査-5月調査:総括表

ブルームバーグ・ニュースが 民間調査機関を対象に調査したGDP、主要指標およびマーケット関連 項目の予想の総括表は以下の通り。調査期間は5月19日-5月23日。

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                          2Q     3Q     4Q     1Q     2Q     CY     FY
                         2008   2008   2008   2009   2009   2008   2008
========================================================================
Real GDP QOQ%            0.1%   0.2%   0.3%   0.4%   0.4%    n/a    n/a
 Previous survey         0.3%   0.4%   0.4%   0.5%    n/a    n/a    n/a
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Real GDP Annualized      0.3%   0.8%   1.2%   1.2%   1.5%    n/a    n/a
 Previous survey         1.1%   1.3%   1.7%   1.7%    n/a    n/a    n/a
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Real GDP YOY%             n/a    n/a    n/a    n/a    n/a   1.5%   1.5%
 Previous survey          n/a    n/a    n/a    n/a    n/a   1.4%   1.5%
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Nominal GDP QOQ%         0.1%   0.3%   0.1%   0.3%   0.7%   0.5%   0.9%
 Previous survey         0.4%   0.5%   0.4%   0.7%    n/a   0.7%   1.3%
========================================================================
                          2Q     3Q     4Q     1Q     2Q     CY     FY
                         2008   2008   2008   2009   2009   2008   2008
========================================================================
Private consumption      0.0%   0.2%   0.2%   0.2%   0.3%   1.4%   1.2%
 Previous survey         0.2%   0.3%   0.4%   0.4%    n/a   0.9%   0.8%
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Residential investment   4.4%   4.0%   0.8%   -0.2%  0.2%   -2.6%  4.4%
 Previous survey         6.3%   3.8%   2.3%   0.0%    n/a   -1.0%  6.2%
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Capital spending         0.1%   0.4%   0.4%   0.7%   0.6%   -0.2%  0.8%
 Previous survey         0.4%   0.4%   0.7%   0.8%    n/a   1.1%   2.1%
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Public investment        -1.5%  -1.5%  -1.1%  -0.7%  -0.8%  -2.3%  -2.9%
 Previous survey         -1.0%  -0.9%  -0.9%  -0.8%   n/a   -4.3%  -3.4%
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Domestic demand (*)      0.1%   0.2%   0.2%   0.3%   0.3%   0.5%   0.8%
 Previous survey         0.3%   0.3%   0.3%   0.4%    n/a   0.7%   1.0%
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External demand (*)      0.0%   0.1%   0.0%   0.1%   0.2%   1.1%   0.8%
 Previous survey         -0.1%  0.0%   0.1%   0.1%    n/a   0.7%   0.5%
========================================================================
                          2Q     3Q     4Q     1Q     2Q     CY     FY
                         2008   2008   2008   2009   2009   2008   2008
========================================================================
Exports                  0.7%   0.4%   0.8%   1.2%   1.5%   9.5%   7.2%
 Previous survey         0.1%   0.7%   1.3%   1.5%    n/a   6.5%   5.2%
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
Imports                  0.3%   0.5%   0.6%   0.7%   0.7%   3.4%   3.1%
 Previous survey         0.6%   0.7%   0.9%   1.0%    n/a   2.0%   2.2%
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GDP deflator YOY%        -1.2%  -0.8%  -0.2%  -0.1%  0.2%   -0.9%  -0.6%
 Previous survey         -0.9%  -0.6%  0.0%   0.2%    n/a   -0.6%  -0.3%
========================================================================
                          2Q     3Q     4Q     1Q     2Q     CY     FY
                         2008   2008   2008   2009   2009   2008   2008
========================================================================
Industrial production    -0.4%  0.4%   0.6%   0.8%   0.6%    n/a   0.5%
 Previous survey         -0.1%  0.3%   0.6%   0.8%   0.6%    n/a   1.8%
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Unemployment rate        3.9%   3.9%   3.9%   3.8%   3.8%   4.0%   3.9%
 Previous survey         3.9%   3.9%   3.8%   3.8%   3.8%    n/a   3.8%
========================================================================
                          2Q     3Q     4Q     1Q     2Q     CY     FY
                         2008   2008   2008   2009   2009   2008   2008
========================================================================
Consumer prices YOY%     1.2%   1.5%   1.3%   1.1%   0.9%    n/a   1.1%
 Previous survey         0.9%   0.9%   0.7%   0.4%   0.4%    n/a   0.5%
========================================================================
                          2Q     3Q     4Q     1Q     2Q     CY     FY
                         2008   2008   2008   2009   2009   2008   2008
========================================================================
10-Year JGB Yield        1.60%  1.60%  1.70%  1.73%  1.80%   n/a    n/a
 Previous survey         1.35%  1.40%  1.50%  1.55%  1.60%   n/a    n/a
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2-Year Notes Yield       0.75%  0.80%  0.90%  0.90%  0.85%   n/a    n/a
 Previous survey         0.53%  0.63%  0.65%  0.70%  0.85%   n/a    n/a
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Overnight call rate      0.50%  0.50%  0.50%  0.50%  0.50%   n/a    n/a
 Previous survey         0.50%  0.50%  0.50%  0.50%  0.50%   n/a    n/a
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3 month LIBOR            0.85%  0.84%  0.80%  0.80%  0.90%   n/a    n/a
 Previous survey         0.82%  0.75%  0.73%  0.70%  0.88%   n/a    n/a
========================================================================
                          2Q     3Q     4Q     1Q     2Q     CY     FY
                         2008   2008   2008   2009   2009   2008   2008
========================================================================
Yen Level               102.5  102.5  103.5  105.0  106.0    n/a    n/a
 Previous survey        100.0  101.0  101.0  102.0  103.8    n/a    n/a
========================================================================

注:名目GDP、GDPの項目および鉱工業生産の数値は表示がない場合、 前期比。 失業率は期間の平均。その他の指標は期末の予想値。 (*) =GDP成長率寄与度

--編集: Marco Babic

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